Problems with Demographic Data in Jordan 

Both official and academic sources in Jordan agree that accurate demographic data about the Palestinian population in Jordan are not available, due to combinations of two factors: 
+ Palestinians moving between the West- and the East Bank of the Jordan River have not been systematically registered; 
+ data from official population census are old and do not distinguish between Palestinians and ethnic Jordanians. 

- The only well documented group are Palestinian refugees of the 1948 war, because they and their descendants have been systematically registered by UNRWA. In spite of this fact, Dr. Fathi Nsour, head of the Statistics Department of the Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan, points out that the refugee figures commonly circulated are inaccurate. UNRWA refugee figures tend to be too large, mainly because deceased persons are usually not subtracted. This occurs because UNRWA, on the one hand, is interested in large figures so as to attract sufficient donor support, and refugee families, on the other, are reluctant to give up the UNRWA card of a deceased relative so as not to reduce their share of UNRWA services. 

- Concerning 1967 displaced persons the situation is much more difficult. 1967 UNRWA data provide information only about registered Palestinian refugees displaced for a second time. Jordan, on the other hand, did not register Palestinians displaced in 1967, because they simply moved from one part of Jordan (the then newly occupied West Bank) to another (East Bank). Only in the early 1970s did the Jordanian Ministry of the Occupied Territories/Registry of Displaced Persons call people to register and 240,000 displaced Palestinians followed the call. Figures of 1967 displaced persons issued by Arab politicians, delegations and by the press, on the other hand, are all political data, issued to underline a certain political position and therefore tend to be too high. 

- Neither UNRWA nor the Jordanian authorities used to gather data on Palestinians whose ID cards were revoked by Israel and existing lists of such persons are only very partial. A somewhat systematic collection of data at the bridges between the West and East Bank started only in 1983. Between 1967 and 1983, data of persons crossing the bridges were not systematically filed and are not accessible. 

Official Jordanian experts like Dr. Fathi Nsour, however, suggest that existing information is sufficient to refute some of the common distortions of the demographic situation in Jordan. 
Thus, for example, it is frequently claimed that Palestinians are the majority in Jordan today and that they make up 60 - 70% of the total Jordanian population. According to Dr. Nsour any ratio above 50% is unrealistic, because a simple calculation of annual population growth can show that this would mean that Jordan was unpopulated before 1948. Although the refugee wave from Kuwait in 1990 - 1991 led to an increase of the number of Palestinians in Jordan, their ratio, estimated at 40% in 1988, did not rise above 50% (2.05 million) in 1995. 
Known rates of annual population growth also set a limit on the number of 1967 displaced persons and their descendants that can be realistically expected in 1995. It is generally agreed that approximately 250,000 Palestinians displaced for the first time in 1967 reached Jordan in the aftermath of the war. If we assume an average annual growth rate of 4%, their number has reached 720,843 in 1994. Any figure significantly larger is unrealistic. 

The 1994 Population Census in Jordan 

The last population census in Jordan was conducted in 1979. According to the law, a census must be conducted every 10 years. The 1989 census, however, was delayed and only in 1994 was the Statistical Bureau given the green light to conduct a new census. 
It is widely viewed that the lack of demographic data now urgently needed in the framework of the political negotiations with Israel was the main reason for the 1994 census. 

The census included two sets of questions that were relevant for the identification of Palestinians in general and displaced persons and refugees in particular: 

a) are you a 
 - refugee 
 - displaced 
 - other (e.g. Jordanian, lost ID, etc.) 

b) what is your nationality 
 - Jordanian 
 - Palestinian 
 - other 

More than six months later, the results have not yet been published. According to Dr. Anwar Quraan, director of the Refugees and Displaced Persons Studies Program at Yarmouk University, the publication of the results is delayed due to the sensitivity of the subject (i.e. fears that the census will document a Palestinian majority in Jordan) and due to difficulties in processing the correct data. In spite of the intensive training of the interviewers, there were many problems such as mistakes and deliberate false answers. It is known that large numbers of Palestinians refused to give correct answers to some of the questions, mainly for fear of losing their double status and rights both in Jordan and Palestine.

 
index
issue no. 13